My Big Pound Short

Date published: Tuesday 29th of March 2016

I was working over at a client's office last week and, during a quiet moment, I asked a few of the staff members if they are planning to vote to stay IN Europe or OUT of Europe this summer. I am speaking, of course, about the upcoming in/out EU referendum that's happening in the UK. In any event, the feedback I received was very interesting. The four people whom I have spoken to about this are all planning on voting out. Now, I know that it's hardly a scientific test or anything, but what makes this interesting is that the people I'm locking horns with come from all sides of the political spectrum. Left wing, right wing and people in the middle are all planning on voting for the UK to leave Europe.

So, does this mean that the UK will definitely leave Europe? Is the so-called Brexit on? Well, I don't know. I think the media are soon going to swing into full gear with this and they'll make sure the British public are scared out of their minds. By the way, if you've been keeping an eye on the news over the last five or six days, you may have noticed that the mainstream media are currently doing a number on Donald Trump. That's how it works, folks. As soon as somebody or something comes along which has the potential to threaten the Establishment, the mainstream media jump right on it and scare the masses into voting to keep things as they are.

But, I digress. Back to the pound...

As I was saying, I don't know what's going to happen when this EU referendum comes along. The date of the referendum is June 23rd and it should make for some interesting TV. One thing that I'm absolutely sure of, however, is that is going to be close. Really close.

A significant number of business leaders and politicians are telling us that if the UK leaves the EU then it will be devastating for the British economy and it will dramatically weaken (drum roll!) the British Pound. Now, I have no clue about whether they're right or not and in many ways it doesn't really bother me either way. However, what we can say for a fact is that the uncertainty that's going to be caused over this is going to really cause damage to the Pound.

On top of that, the Federal Reserve appear to have their hearts set on raising interest rates. This is going to push the dollar higher. Much higher.

So folks, what you're going to see over the next two or three months is a sort of pincer movement going against the Pound. On the one hand, we have the Brexit thing causing massive uncertainty, and then - on the other hand - we have the US govt, hell bent on raising interest rates.

I have therefore placed about a third of my personal bank account on the USD and I'm betting against the pound. It's basically a spread bet with an expiry date of June 1st. However, if I'm right about this I should be quids in. Janet Yellen will be putting out a speech today at about 4:30GMT. When she talks, I think you'll see the Pound dropping and the US Dollar going up. Go check it out and see for yourself.

The reason why I'm telling you this is because I'd like to gradually introduce some of you web developer types to the world of stock market trading. I think you'd enjoy it. I think you'd be good at it. I'd like to put some training out at some point and perhaps even join forces with some of you (for example, setting up a news-watching network). I haven't got the time to put out any stock market training just yet so in the meantime I thought it might be interesting to some of you if I just told you what I'm doing, where I'm putting my money and - most importantly - the thinking behind what I'm doing.

So, keep an eye on the Pound vs the US Dollar and when the Pound crumbles, let's chuck that in the "David was right" file.

May you have a great week!

DC

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